Daily Premium Income Checklist
Win Rate (with SL)
92.8%
Target Delta
0.13–0.15
Stop-Loss Rule
RR 1:2
Target Income
$20/day
Overall progress
⛔ SKIP TODAY — A hard no-trade condition was triggered. Do not open a position.
✅ ALL CHECKS PASSED — Setup is valid. Enter within your position size limit.
1. Check Macro Calendar on ForexFactory
forexfactory.com
What to do: Go to forexfactory.com → look at today's calendar → look for HIGH impact events (red folder icon) involving USD: FOMC, CPI, NFP, Fed Chair Speech.
Why it matters: On these days BTC can move 3–5% in under 1 hour. Your short call strike at +2% will get blown through. The $30–$90 premium you collect is not worth a $300–$500 loss.
Why it matters: On these days BTC can move 3–5% in under 1 hour. Your short call strike at +2% will get blown through. The $30–$90 premium you collect is not worth a $300–$500 loss.
→Calendar clear or only low/medium impact events: PROCEED
→FOMC / CPI / NFP / Fed Chair Speech today: SKIP — tick below
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
2. Calculate IV/HV Ratio (v2: HV30, ratio ≥ 1.15)
coinglass.com/options/Bybit + TradingView
What to do: Get IV from Bybit option chain (% column next to each strike). Get HV30 from TradingView → add indicator "Historical Volatility" length 30. Then calculate the ratio.
— IV (Implied Volatility) = what the market fears BTC will do. Baked into option price.
— HV30 (Historical Volatility, 30-day) = what BTC actually did over the past 30 days.
— The ratio tells you how much the market is overpaying vs reality. That overpayment = your edge.
— IV (Implied Volatility) = what the market fears BTC will do. Baked into option price.
— HV30 (Historical Volatility, 30-day) = what BTC actually did over the past 30 days.
— The ratio tells you how much the market is overpaying vs reality. That overpayment = your edge.
IV/HV Ratio = IV ÷ HV30
Example: IV = 31%, HV30 = 19.55% → Ratio = 31/19.55 = 1.59 ✅ Sweet spot
Ratio < 1.00 → SKIP — selling cheap, no edge at all
Ratio 1.00–1.15 → Borderline — edge too small, be careful
Ratio 1.15–1.50 → OK — normal edge, proceed
Ratio > 1.50 → Sweet Spot — strong edge, vol spike opportunity
→Ratio ≥ 1.50: Sweet spot — maximum edge
→Ratio 1.15–1.50: OK — proceed normally
→Ratio 1.00–1.15: Borderline — reduce size, extra caution
→Ratio < 1.00 (IV < HV): SKIP — no edge, tick below
v2 change: use HV30 (not HV7) and check the ratio, not just the gap. Hard skip threshold is ratio < 1.15.
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
3. Calculate ATM Straddle — Today's Expected Range
Bybit Option Chain
What to do: Open Bybit option chain for today's expiry → ATM strike closest to spot → note Call price AND Put price → add them.
ATM Call + ATM Put = Expected Move (Straddle)
BTC = $74,890 | Call(75K) = $305 | Put(75K) = $295
Straddle = $600 → Range: $74,290 – $75,490
Your strike (from Part B) should sit above the top of this range.→Strike above (Spot + Straddle top): Good buffer
→Strike inside expected range: Consider moving strike higher in Part B
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
Informational only — no skip trigger. Use it to calibrate strike selection.
4. Check BTC Funding Rate
coinglass.com/FundingRate
What to do: Go to
coinglass.com/FundingRate
→ find BTC row. Also visible on Bybit BTCUSDT Perp page top-left.
Bybit charges funding every 8 hours at: 07:00, 15:00, and 23:00 TH.
— Positive = Longs paying Shorts. Market crowded long → bullish momentum may slow. Good for short call sellers.
— Negative = Shorts paying Longs. Risk of short squeeze (rapid BTC spike). Dangerous.
Bybit charges funding every 8 hours at: 07:00, 15:00, and 23:00 TH.
— Positive = Longs paying Shorts. Market crowded long → bullish momentum may slow. Good for short call sellers.
— Negative = Shorts paying Longs. Risk of short squeeze (rapid BTC spike). Dangerous.
Funding > +0.03% → Excellent — longs crowded
Funding +0.005% to +0.01% → Good — normal
Funding −0.001% to +0.005% → Neutral
Funding −0.01% to −0.005% → Caution — move strike up 1 step
Funding < −0.03% → SKIP
→Funding neutral to positive: Proceed
→Funding −0.01% to −0.005%: Move strike up 1 step
→Funding < −0.03%: SKIP — tick below
🤖 Automation result
⏳ Fetching funding rate…
5. Did BTC Rally +5% or More Yesterday?
TradingView Daily Chart
What to do: TradingView → BTC/USDT → 1D chart → yesterday's candle.
Move % = (Close − Open) / Open × 100
Open $70,000 → Close $73,500 → Move = +5.0% → SKIP
When BTC has a big green day (+5%), momentum often carries into the next session.⚠️ Also check current intraday move — if BTC is already up +5% today before entry, same rule applies.
→Yesterday's move < +5%: Normal — proceed
→Yesterday's move ≥ +5%: SKIP — tick below
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
6. Scan for Active Liquidation Cascade
coinglass.com/LiquidationData
What to do: Check coinglass.com/LiquidationData → BTC liquidation bars for last 1–4 hours. Also check Bybit OI on TradingView (symbol: BTCUSDTPERP.OI) for sudden vertical drops.
What a cascade looks like:
— Liquidation bar 10×–50× larger than surrounding bars in last 1–2 hours.
— OI drops sharply and suddenly.
— BTC price spikes 2–4% in minutes with no news reason.
What a cascade looks like:
— Liquidation bar 10×–50× larger than surrounding bars in last 1–2 hours.
— OI drops sharply and suddenly.
— BTC price spikes 2–4% in minutes with no news reason.
Normal: small, even bars on CoinGlass chart
Cascade: one giant bar 10x+ surrounding bars
+ OI dropping sharply
+ BTC price spiking erratically
⚠️ Real-time check — do this immediately before clicking Sell, not just at 06:00 TH.
→Liquidation bars normal, OI stable: No cascade — proceed
→Abnormal spike in last 1–2 hours: Wait 30–60 min, re-check before entering
→Cascade actively happening now: SKIP — tick below
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
7. Check Liquidation 24h Total — CoinGlass Derivatives Row
coinglass.com → Derivatives → BTC row
What to do: Go to
coinglass.com
→ tab "Derivatives" → find BTC row → read the "Liquidation 24h" column. This is a different check from Module 6 — that one looked at real-time spikes. This one looks at the 24h total to determine the current market regime.
Why it matters: Liquidation 24h is the single most important override signal in v2. It tells you whether the market is calm enough to trade. Even if every other check passes — if this number is too high, you skip. No exceptions.
Why it matters: Liquidation 24h is the single most important override signal in v2. It tells you whether the market is calm enough to trade. Even if every other check passes — if this number is too high, you skip. No exceptions.
Liquidation 24h Tiers — v2 Framework:
< $50M → Safe Zone ✅ Trade normally, full size
$50–$150M → Borderline ⚠️ Caution: reduce size 30-50%, widen strike
$150–$200M → Pre-Cascade ⛔ SKIP — stress event in progress, wave 2 risk
> $200M → CASCADE ⛔ HARD SKIP — wait until drops back below $50M
Real example from playbook:
18 May: $255M → SKIP ✓ (BTC continued down)
19 May: $377M → SKIP ✓ (cascade continued)
22 May: $45M → TRADE ✓ (won, BTC settled below strike)
→Liquidation 24h < $50M: Safe Zone — proceed at full size
→Liquidation 24h $50M–$150M: Caution — reduce size, use wider strike (2+ SD)
→Liquidation 24h $150M–$200M: Pre-cascade — SKIP, tick below
→Liquidation 24h > $200M: CASCADE — hard SKIP always, tick below
This is the single rule that overrides everything else. If Liquidation > $200M, no setup is good enough.
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
8. Combination Read — Price + Volume + OI + Liquidation
CoinGlass Derivatives BTC row
What to do: From the same CoinGlass Derivatives BTC row, read these 4 columns together: Price 24h%, Volume 24h%, OI 24h%, Liquidation 24h. Match the combination to one of the 4 patterns below.
Why together: Each metric alone is misleading. A good funding rate + good IV/HV still means SKIP if the combination pattern says danger. This is the rule that most standard checklists miss — and what saved the playbook on Day 18.
Why together: Each metric alone is misleading. A good funding rate + good IV/HV still means SKIP if the combination pattern says danger. This is the rule that most standard checklists miss — and what saved the playbook on Day 18.
Pattern 1 — Bullish Accumulation (Short Put aligned, Short Call risky)
Price ↑ + Volume ↑ + OI ↑ = New longs entering, trend strengthening
→ Short Call: RISKY | Short Put: consider (aligned with trend)
Pattern 2 — Long Capitulation (SKIP everything)
Price ↓ + Volume ↑↑ + OI ↓ + Liquidation > $200M = Cascade / forced selling
→ Bounce risk in ANY direction in next 12–24h. SKIP all trades.
Pattern 3 — New Shorts Piling (Short Call aligned, Short Put risky)
Price ↓ + Volume ↑ + OI ↑ = New shorts entering, bearish conviction
→ Short Call: OK (aligned) | Short Put: SKIP (against momentum)
Pattern 4 — Quiet Deleveraging (Either side OK)
Price flat + Volume ↓ + OI ↓ + Liquidation ↓ = Market calming, regime normal
→ Short Call or Put: OK — choose based on macro view
→Pattern 4 (Quiet): Best condition — trade either side
→Pattern 3 (New Shorts) + you're selling Call: Aligned — proceed
→Pattern 1 (Bullish) + you're selling Call: Against momentum — reduce size or skip
→Pattern 2 (Capitulation) any direction: SKIP — bounce risk both ways, tick below
Day 18 lesson: AI passed all 8 individual checks but Combination Read showed Pattern 3 (new shorts piling). Short Put would have been positioned against the crowd. SKIP was correct — BTC fell $5,700 over next 5 days.
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
9. Declare Your Macro View — Bearish / Bullish / Neutral
TradingView Daily Chart
What to do: Look at the BTC/USDT Daily (1D) chart on TradingView. Decide the big-picture direction right now. This decision drives which strategy you use today.
Why you must do this yourself: AI cannot know your macro view. You must tell it every single time. If you skip this, the AI will give a generic analysis that may recommend the wrong strategy direction.
Why you must do this yourself: AI cannot know your macro view. You must tell it every single time. If you skip this, the AI will give a generic analysis that may recommend the wrong strategy direction.
BEARISH: Lower highs + lower lows on Daily · MACD red · MA ribbon pointing down
→ Use Short Call (aligned — you think BTC won't go up past your strike)
BULLISH: Higher highs + higher lows · MACD green · MA ribbon pointing up
→ Use Short Put (aligned — you think BTC won't fall below your strike)
NEUTRAL: Sideways range · No clear trend · MACD near zero
→ Choose based on Funding Rate:
Funding positive (long crowded) → Short Call
Funding negative (short crowded) → Short Put
Conflicting signals → SKIP and wait for clarity
→Macro view is clear (Bearish or Bullish): Pick aligned strategy and proceed
→Macro view is Neutral: Use funding rate to decide direction
→Signals conflicting — can't decide: SKIP — wait for clarity. Gut uncertainty = No-Trade Rule #7
🤖 Your macro view today
— declare manually: BEARISH / BULLISH / NEUTRAL —
Do NOT change your macro view during the day based on 1H momentum. Only change it when the Daily chart structure breaks (new support/resistance level broken).
7. Find Strike with Delta 0.13–0.15 on Bybit Option Chain
Bybit Options
What to do: Bybit → Options → today's daily expiry → scroll Call strikes above spot → find Delta 0.13–0.15.
Delta | Prob Win | Avg Distance | Use When
0.30 | ~70% | +1.1% | Aggressive (avoid daily)
0.20 | ~77% | +1.7% | Only if very confident vol is low
0.15 | ~85% | +2.2% | ✅ Default sweet spot
0.10 | ~91% | +2.7% | Conservative / high-IV days
0.05 | ~96% | +3.5% | Ultra-safe, low premium
→Found delta 0.13–0.15 strike: Use this strike
→IV very high (>60%): Use delta 0.10 — still good premium
→Delta 0.15 strike too close to spot (low IV): Reconsider — premium may not be worth risk
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
8. Cross-Check Strike vs Resistance Level
TradingView 1H / 4H
What to do: TradingView → BTC/USDT → 1H or 4H → draw horizontal lines at recent swing highs and resistance zones → compare with your selected strike price.
→Strike at or above a clear resistance level: Excellent — confluence of barriers
→Resistance below strike and already broken upward: Move strike up one step
→BTC in price discovery, no clear resistance: Use more conservative delta (0.10)
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
9. Check ATR 4H — Strike Should Be > 1.5× ATR Away
TradingView → ATR Indicator
What to do: TradingView → BTC 4H → Indicators → ATR (default 14) → read current value.
Min safe distance = ATR (4H) × 1.5
ATR 4H = $1,200 → Min distance = $1,800
BTC spot = $74,000 → Strike must be above $75,800
Delta 0.15 strike = $76,200 → ✅ Sufficient
Delta 0.15 strike = $75,500 → ⚠️ Too close, move up
→Strike > 1.5× ATR above spot: Good distance — proceed
→Strike < 1.5× ATR above spot: Too close for current volatility — move up or skip
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
12. SD Distance — Strike Must Be > 1.5 SD from Spot
Calculate from IV + BTC Spot
What to do: Using the current BTC spot price and the IV from the Bybit option chain, calculate the 1 Standard Deviation move for today's daily option window. Your strike must be more than 1.5 SD away from spot.
Why this is different from ATR: ATR is based on recent price history. SD Distance is derived from IV — so it automatically widens when volatility is high. In high-vol regimes, SD Distance gives you a more accurate danger zone than ATR alone.
Why this is different from ATR: ATR is based on recent price history. SD Distance is derived from IV — so it automatically widens when volatility is high. In high-vol regimes, SD Distance gives you a more accurate danger zone than ATR alone.
Formula (Daily Option — 8h window):
SD = Spot × IV × √(1/365)
Example:
BTC Spot = $74,000
IV = 30% (0.30)
SD = $74,000 × 0.30 × √(1/365)
SD = $74,000 × 0.30 × 0.05234
SD ≈ $1,162
Minimum strike distance = 1.5 × SD = $1,743
Your strike must be above: $74,000 + $1,743 = $75,743
Required SD distance by regime:
Quiet (Liq < $50M): 1.5 SD minimum
Borderline ($50-150M): 2.0 SD minimum
Recovery (post-cascade): 2.5 SD minimum
Pre-event / macro risk: 3.0 SD or skip
→Strike distance > 1.5 SD (quiet regime): Sufficient — proceed
→Strike distance 1.0–1.5 SD: Too close — SKIP or move strike up, tick below
→Borderline regime ($50-150M liq) and strike < 2 SD: Move strike to 2 SD minimum
SD Distance and ATR are complementary. Use whichever gives the wider (safer) strike requirement.
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
10. Check Max Pain Level on CoinGlass
coinglass.com/pro/options/max-pain
What to do: coinglass.com/pro/options/max-pain → find today's expiry → read Max Pain price.
Max Pain = price where most options expire worthless. Market makers often nudge price toward it near expiry.
Max Pain = price where most options expire worthless. Market makers often nudge price toward it near expiry.
→Max Pain below current BTC spot: Good — gravity pulls price away from your strike
→Max Pain above current BTC spot: Caution — price may be pulled toward your strike
→Max Pain very close to your strike: Move strike up one step
🤖 Automation result
— not yet automated —
One signal among many — weight alongside IV, delta, and resistance. Not a standalone skip rule.
11. Set Stop-Loss — Index Price, Strike ± $500 (NOT Mark Price)
Bybit → Trigger by Index Price
What to do: After selling the call, immediately place a conditional stop order on Bybit. Set it to trigger by Index Price (not Mark Price). Use Market order type so you exit immediately when triggered.
Why NOT Mark Price: Mark Price is calculated from IV model (Black-Scholes), not real market price. During IV spikes, Mark Price can show −27% or −195% loss when you've barely opened — even if BTC hasn't moved. This is a false signal. SL on Mark Price = getting stopped out by noise.
Why NOT Mark Price: Mark Price is calculated from IV model (Black-Scholes), not real market price. During IV spikes, Mark Price can show −27% or −195% loss when you've barely opened — even if BTC hasn't moved. This is a false signal. SL on Mark Price = getting stopped out by noise.
v2 SL Method — Index Price:
Short Call SL:
Trigger Price = Strike − $500
Trigger by: Index Price (BTC spot price)
Order type: Market
Example: Short Call Strike $79,000
SL Trigger = $79,000 − $500 = $78,500 (Index Price)
→ If BTC Index hits $78,500, exit immediately
Short Put SL:
Trigger Price = Strike + $500
Example: Short Put Strike $72,000
SL Trigger = $72,000 + $500 = $72,500 (Index Price)
RR still applies — verify premium × 2 is acceptable loss:
Sold at $15 → max loss $30 → confirm $500 buffer gives you that room
→SL set on Bybit, triggered by Index Price, Market order: Correct — safe to proceed
→SL set using Mark Price: Wrong — will trigger on IV noise, not real price
→No SL set yet: Do NOT leave position unprotected
v2 change: SL is now Index Price at Strike ± $500, not "option price = 3× entry." The $500 buffer acts as your stop before gamma squeeze accelerates losses in the final 30 min TWAP window.
12. Size Position to Max 2–3% of Portfolio Per Trade
Position Sizing Rule
What to do: Calculate max allowable loss in dollars, then work backward to max contracts.
Portfolio $10,000 → Max loss = $250 (2.5%)
Premium/contract $60 → SL loss = $120
Max contracts: $250 ÷ $120 = ~2 contracts
Portfolio $5,000 → Max loss = $125 → Max contracts = 1
→Max loss per trade ≤ 2–3% of USDT balance: Correctly sized
→Tempted to add more because setup looks perfect: Resist — no setup is guaranteed
Over-sizing is the #1 way traders blow accounts on a 92% win-rate strategy.
13. Check Consecutive Loss Count
Your Trade Log
What to do: Check your trade log. Count how many days in a row you have had a losing trade (SL triggered or closed at a loss).
Three consecutive losses signals a possible regime change — volatility conditions may have shifted. Pausing protects capital while you reassess.
Three consecutive losses signals a possible regime change — volatility conditions may have shifted. Pausing protects capital while you reassess.
→0, 1, or 2 consecutive losses: Normal variance — continue
→3 or more consecutive losses: STOP — tick below
After the pause: re-evaluate IV vs HV, funding rate, and market structure before resuming.
14. Enter Trade Between 07:00–09:00 TH (00:00–02:00 UTC)
Timing
Lowest volatility, lowest volume period of the day. Full premium still intact — the entire 8-hour theta window is ahead.
Settlement: 15:00 TH (08:00 UTC)
Optimal entry: 07:00–09:00 TH (00:00–02:00 UTC) → 6–8 hrs left
Late entry: after 11:00 TH → recalculate if premium still worthwhile
Too late: after 13:00 TH → under 2 hrs left → skip today
→Entering 07:00–09:00 TH: Optimal window
→Entering after 11:00 TH: Premium decayed — recalculate if still worthwhile
→Entering after 13:00 TH: Skip today — premium too low for the risk
Do not chase a late entry. Tomorrow is another opportunity.
14B. Pin Risk Exit — Close Position by 13:30 TH (Hard Rule)
90 min before settlement
What to do: Set a calendar reminder for 13:30 TH. If you still have an open position at 13:30 TH, close it — regardless of current P&L, regardless of how far BTC is from your strike.
Why 13:30 TH specifically: The TWAP settlement window runs 14:30–15:00 TH (last 30 min). In the 60–90 minutes before that window, gamma squeeze risk accelerates sharply — especially if BTC is within $200 of your strike. Closing at 13:30 TH gives you the bulk of the profit while avoiding the most dangerous volatility window.
Why 13:30 TH specifically: The TWAP settlement window runs 14:30–15:00 TH (last 30 min). In the 60–90 minutes before that window, gamma squeeze risk accelerates sharply — especially if BTC is within $200 of your strike. Closing at 13:30 TH gives you the bulk of the profit while avoiding the most dangerous volatility window.
Pin Risk Timeline:
13:30 TH → EXIT all positions (hard rule)
14:00 TH → Do NOT hold if BTC is within $200 of your strike
14:30 TH → TWAP window begins — gamma squeeze risk highest
15:00 TH → Settlement — if you're still in, you're gambling
Real example (Day 11):
Short Call $78,000 · BTC at $77,950 at 14:00 TH
"Safe, only $50 away" → did NOT close
14:35 TH: BTC spiked to $78,015 · gamma pushed premium 5×
Closed at 14:50 with much larger loss than necessary
→Position closed before 13:30 TH: Safe — kept most of the premium
→BTC within $200 of strike at 14:00 TH: Close immediately — do not wait for TWAP
→Holding through 14:30 TH by choice: High risk — gamma squeeze can hit fast
Closing at 13:30 TH means you capture ~85-90% of the maximum profit. The remaining 10-15% is not worth the gamma squeeze risk in the final 90 minutes.
15. Optional Mid-Day Check at ~12:00 TH (05:00 UTC)
Monitor
One quick check around 12:00 TH. Confirm SL order is still active on Bybit. Check if option price dropped significantly.
You do NOT need to watch constantly. The SL is your protection.
You do NOT need to watch constantly. The SL is your protection.
→Option price dropped to 30–50% of sell price: Consider early close (see item 16)
→Option price near SL level: SL will handle it — trust the system
→Everything quiet: Close Bybit — let it run to 15:00 TH
16. Early Close When Profit Reaches 50–70% of Premium
Optional Profit Lock
If option price decayed to 30–50% of sell price, buy back to close early and lock profit.
Sold call at: $60
50% profit → buy back at $30 → locked = $30
70% profit → buy back at $18 → locked = $42
After closing: position fully flat, zero remaining risk.
→Market calm, no news risk: Hold to settlement — let theta finish
→50–70% profit reached AND risk event ahead: Close early — $30 win beats $120 loss
Settlement price = TWAP of BTC Index over the final 30 minutes: 14:30–15:00 TH (07:30–08:00 UTC).
A momentary spike above your strike that quickly reverts may still expire OTM due to TWAP averaging. Do not rely on this — your SL is your protection, not TWAP luck.
Expired OTM: keep 100% of remaining premium. Expired ITM: Bybit cash-settles in USDT — no BTC delivery needed.