POT 01 · YOUR ORIGINAL BTC
What remains after repayment
BTC you keep——
Position builder
Your loan parameters
Position builder
Your loan parameters
01 Collateral & borrowing
BTC
BTC
USD
USD
A new loan is sized at this price. Editing it does not track a fixed existing debt.
LTV
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0% / lower debt
84%
02 Deploy & simulate
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%
USD
USD
Leave blank to use the reference price.
USD
USD
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date
Defaults to today. Holding days and interest update automatically.
Interest = principal × APR × elapsed days ÷ 365. Every view uses the same date-derived debt.
USD
USD
For an existing loan, enter its original fixed principal. Leave blank only when planning a new LTV-sized loan.
Risk & cost basis
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%
USD
USD
Applied only to your original collateral; loan-funded BTC keeps its own purchase price.
Optional
Thresholds and rates are assumptions. Set them to your lender’s terms.
Workspace /
Position overview
Bundled market snapshot. Refresh to check for newer data.
Loan principal
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— of collateral
Collateral value
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— BTC pledged
Liquidation price · now
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— drop from reference
Financing cost
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— simple interest
Scenario payoff
Loan-funded BTC vs. holding your original BTC
Net P/L at target
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— return on collateral
At BTC price
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ACTIVE
Loan strategy
Spot only
Liquidation zone
Breakeven —
Edge vs. spot —
Cycle signal
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/ 10
HEURISTIC
Reading market signals
Weighted on-chain model.
Snapshot
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Capital allocation
Deployed in BTC
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Cash held
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Additional BTC
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Total BTC
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Two Separate Pots
At the reference BTC price, after the selected holding period’s interest.
POT 02 · LOAN-FUNDED BTC
The BTC bought with your loan
The debt is repaid in Pot 01. This BTC stays separate from your pledged collateral.
Additional BTC you keep——
POT 01 + POT 02
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Unused loan cash——
Residual BTC = pledged BTC − (principal + interest) ÷ reference price
Wallet BTC = residual BTC + loan-funded BTC
Net assets = wallet BTC × reference price + unused cash
Wallet BTC = residual BTC + loan-funded BTC
Net assets = wallet BTC × reference price + unused cash
Illustrative repayment by selling collateral at the reference price. Fees are excluded, and the position must survive liquidation. Unused cash is shown separately; borrowing itself creates no profit.
What if I repay today with collateral?
Uses fixed principal + interest calculated automatically from the loan date.
CURRENT BTC · REPAY TODAY
BTC now price
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WALLET AFTER REPAYMENT
If repaid now
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AT CURRENT BTC PRICE
Separate legs and combined result
If you repay now: where every dollar and BTC comes from.
GLANCE VIEW
BTC advantage vs. simply holding
Bars show BTC gained or lost versus keeping your original collateral untouched. Final wallet and dollar advantage appear beside each scenario.
WHERE YOUR BTC GOES
Repay-now wallet flow
Final wallet composition—
Original BTC remainingLoan-funded BTCHolding benchmark
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Detailed repayment numbers
01 · ORIGINAL HOLDING
Holding benchmark
02 · LOAN-FUNDED BTC
Loan leg
03 · DEBT-FREE TOTAL
Combined wallet
BTC quantity vs. dollar value
The final wallet combines two sources: original collateral left after repayment, plus BTC previously bought with the loan. It never treats sold collateral as still owned.
Debt today = fixed principal + accrued interest today
BTC sold = debt today ÷ target price
Final BTC = original BTC − BTC sold + loan-funded BTC
BTC quantity break-even = debt today ÷ loan-funded BTC
BTC sold = debt today ÷ target price
Final BTC = original BTC − BTC sold + loan-funded BTC
BTC quantity break-even = debt today ÷ loan-funded BTC
Net P/L = remaining BTC value + unused cash − original collateral value at borrowing. P/L % uses that original collateral value. Unused loan cash is counted once in net assets; it is neither spent on repayment nor converted into BTC.
Conditional on no earlier liquidation and a lender allowing collateral sale for repayment. Fees, slippage and tax are excluded. Change Target BTC price to explore repayment; a filled Actual loan principal will not resize with market price.
Price checkpoints
Loan thresholds include the selected holding period’s interest.
Liquidation
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Margin call
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Model floor
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MVRV model estimate
Model ceiling
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MVRV model estimate
Position assessment
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Price ladder
Collateral, LTV, and P/L at each exit price.
| BTC price | Δ reference | LTV today | Position status | Net equity | Net P/L |
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Position decomposition
AT TARGETHow the numbers connect
Your original BTC and loan-funded BTC keep separate cost bases. Undeployed borrowing stays as cash, with matching debt.
Assets = total BTC × exit price + cash
Debt = principal + simple interest
Net P/L = assets − debt − initial collateral value
Debt = principal + simple interest
Net P/L = assets − debt − initial collateral value
Below liquidation, the open-position model stops. Actual proceeds depend on sale execution, fees, remaining collateral, and your lender’s terms. A rebound to a higher target does not undo an earlier liquidation.
Drop to margin call · now
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90d liquidation-barrier touch
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Illustrative, fixed barrier, zero log drift.
Reward / risk from cost basis
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Model ceiling vs. current liquidation threshold.
Liquidation mechanics
Margin call stress test
Model assumptions & limits
READ WITH RESULTSLoan sizing: a new loan is sized from your reference price and initial LTV. This is a scenario planner; existing loan debt must not be inferred by changing today’s price.
Interest: all views use fixed principal + simple interest accrued from the loan date through today: principal × APR × elapsed days ÷ 365. No trading fees, liquidation fees, tax, slippage, or compounding are included.
Barrier probability: 2Φ[ln(liquidation price ÷ reference price) ÷ (σ√(90/365))], assuming constant volatility and zero log-price drift. It estimates touching a fixed principal-only barrier, and excludes jumps and interest-driven barrier changes. It is not a calibrated forecast.
Cycle score & sizing: the score uses heuristic weights, not backtested success probabilities. The retained half-Kelly illustration maps the score to an assumed win probability; it is not an optimal or recommended LTV.
Illustrative half-Kelly output
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Normal distribution reference · Reflection principle derivation
Signal weights
Weights normalize to 100%. Set an individual weight to zero to exclude it.
Cycle context
Signal reading
MODEL CONTEXTData provenance & recent snapshots
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| Date | MVRV | Z-score | Report BTC price |
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Up to 14 daily on-chain snapshots are kept on this device. Market quotes and on-chain reports have separate timestamps. A fresh quote never makes an older MVRV report current.
Loan vs. spot + futures
The same additional BTC exposure, with different capital requirements.
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| Metric | BTC-backed loan | Spot + futures |
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Loan carry is charged on the full principal; futures funding is estimated on deployed entry notional. Funding can vary and become negative. Futures margin is additional cash; your spot BTC remains outside the isolated futures account.
Cost & liquidation trade-off
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Comparison assumptions
Consistent returns: loan return uses pledged collateral value. Futures portfolio return uses spot value plus posted margin. Futures-leg return uses only the futures P/L and its margin.
Liquidation: the simplified isolated-long threshold is entry × (1 − 1/leverage) ÷ (1 − maintenance margin). Funding deductions, exchange margin tiers, fees, and changing maintenance requirements can move it. Targets below a liquidation threshold are shown as unavailable, because the open-position comparison no longer applies.
Zero deployment: no futures position is opened. There is no futures funding, margin requirement, or futures liquidation price.
Scenario estimates, not execution prices. Model targets are uncertain; loan terms, fees, and liquidation paths can change the outcome.
Ready