↺ All figures update live
💰
Collateral Value
$20,894
0.337 BTC × $62,000
💸
Loan Amount (40% LTV)
$8,358
USDT to wallet
📅
Interest (1.0% APR)
~$84/yr
🛡️
Safety Buffer
$23,035
Before margin call
⚠️
Margin Call (85 LTV)
$38,930
BTC falls here → add collateral
💀
Liquidation (90 LTV)
$36,365
Drop: −41.3%
📊
P(Liq) in 90 days · 65% vol
—
Lognormal model
🎯
Kelly-Optimal LTV
—
Edge + vol + ruin
⚡
Risk / Reward vs Unleveraged
—
Set your entry cost basis above
Margin Call = Loan ÷ (BTC × 0.85) =
· Liquidation =
⚠️ What if BTC keeps falling after MC?
MC Triggers At
—
~24–48h to add collateral
Top-up Needed
—
USDT to drop LTV to 70%
−2%/day after MC
—
BTC price after 24h
−5%/day after MC
—
BTC price after 48h
📈 BEST CASE
Upside Case — Cycle Resumes
Ceiling target$120,584
Your BTC value at target$40,637
Net gain after repaying loan+$19,743
MVRV upside model$136,631
Estimated return on hold+94%
Loan interest (low APR)~$84
Loan interest (5% APR)—
ATH this cycle$124,728 (Oct '25)
📉 WORST CASE
Downside Case — Floor Breaks
Floor consensus model$61,076
MVRV downside model$10,700
Margin call triggers at$38,930 (−37%)
Full liquidation at$27,260 (−56%)
Worst historical drawdown−90.7% (C1)
C4 max drawdown so far−57.3%
What happens to youLose BTC, keep loan
🪙
New BTC Purchased
—
— deployed at current price
📦
Total BTC Held at Target
—
Collateral + new buy
💼
Total Assets at Target
—
Total BTC × target price
🧾
Loan + Interest Owed
—
at target date
📈
Net Profit vs. Today
—
Total value − debt − starting collateral value
🔁
Leveraged Return
—
On original collateral value
🪨
Unleveraged Return
—
If you'd just held, no loan
⚡
Leverage Edge
—
Extra $ gained vs. not borrowing
⚖️
Breakeven Price (Net P&L = 0)
—
Below: leverage costs you · Above: leverage adds gains
New BTC = (Loan × Deploy%) ÷ Current BTC Price · Total Assets = (Collateral + New) BTC × Target Price + Undeployed Cash · Net P&L = Total Assets − Loan Principal − Original Collateral Value · Interest accrues separately (see Loan Math above) and is not deducted here.
Net P/L at exit price
Above breakeven
Below breakeven
The bar shows how your loan splits between BTC bought back in (Deployed) and cash held on the side (Undeployed),
driven by the Deploy % slider above. The chart sweeps the same Net P&L formula across a range of exit prices —
the solid vertical line marks your Breakeven Price, the dashed line marks your current
Target Price. Left of breakeven the deploy strategy loses money versus today; right of it, it gains.
Cycle Start (Apr 2024)
TODAY — 54.1% elapsed
Est. End 2027
In prior cycles: MVRV troughed mid-cycle, then recovered strongly.
| BTC Price |
Δ Now |
LTV |
Status |
Equity |
Net P/L |
Return |
P/L vs Cost Basis |
Rows update live with your inputs above. Equity = BTC value − loan principal.
Net P/L / Return use your Profit Calculator deploy % and target settings, valued
against your collateral's current price (loan interest not deducted).
P/L vs Cost Basis instead measures against what you actually paid
(your Cost Basis entry above) — set it to see this column. Because leverage blends in BTC bought at today's
price, this column's breakeven is usually different from your raw entry price — see the blended breakeven above.
Anchor rows mark Liquidation, Margin Call, MVRV Floor, Ceiling Target and Cycle ATH.
Net P/L vs today's collateral
P/L vs cost basis
Margin call zone
Liquidation zone
Same math as the table above, swept continuously instead of in fixed steps — drag any input to see the curve
and the margin call / liquidation zones move with your position. The dashed vertical line marks today's price.
✓ Case for borrowing now
↗️MVRV Z-score — historically a strong accumulation zone.
↗️C4 MVRV regression floor — borrowing near statistical bottom.
↗️Liquidation requires a deep drop.
↗️Loan carry is minimal relative to potential BTC upside.
↗️No taxable event. BTC exposure maintained throughout.
↗️Floor consensus model close to today's price.
✕ Risks to manage
↘️MA stack — trend not yet confirmed. Borrowing into a downtrend.
↘️C4 peak MVRV lower than prior cycles. Diminishing returns.
↘️Ceiling models have massive error rates. Median guess, not guarantee.
↘️BTC-backed → USDT out. Have a clear deployment plan.
↘️⚠️ MC notifications NOT guaranteed. Set independent price alerts.
↘️Downside model shows extreme floor — wide range if macro breaks.