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⚠️ STALE DATA — Using built-in snapshot. Figures may be outdated.
Connecting…
Current Cycle Signal
/10
🟢
Conditionally Borrow-Ready
Analyzing signals…
🎛️ Your Position
Position
BTC Amount BTC
BTC Price USD/BTC
LTV %
Cost Basis (optional)
What you originally paid per BTC. Used only for the Risk/Reward and upside-vs-downside figures below — it does not affect your LTV, margin call, or liquidation price (those always use the live BTC Price above).
My Entry Price USD/BTC
Entry Date
Optional shortcut — only needed if you don't already know your exact entry price.
Loan Parameters
Margin Call LTV %
Liquidation LTV %
APR %/yr
30d Volatility %ann
↺ All figures update live
⚖️ Signal Weights Total: 100%
MVRV 30%
Z-Score 25%
MA Stack 20%
ROC 30d 10%
Cycle Pos. 15%
Weights normalize to 100% automatically.
🧮 Loan Math · 0.337 BTC @ $62,000
💰
Collateral Value
$20,894
0.337 BTC × $62,000
💸
Loan Amount (40% LTV)
$8,358
USDT to wallet
📅
Interest (1.0% APR)
~$84/yr
🛡️
Safety Buffer
$23,035
Before margin call
⚠️
Margin Call (85 LTV)
$38,930
BTC falls here → add collateral
💀
Liquidation (90 LTV)
$36,365
Drop: −41.3%
📊
P(Liq) in 90 days · 65% vol
Lognormal model
🎯
Kelly-Optimal LTV
Edge + vol + ruin
Risk / Reward vs Unleveraged
Set your entry cost basis above
Margin Call = Loan ÷ (BTC × 0.85) =  ·  Liquidation =
🔥 Margin Call Stress Test
⚠️ What if BTC keeps falling after MC?
MC Triggers At
~24–48h to add collateral
Top-up Needed
USDT to drop LTV to 70%
−2%/day after MC
BTC price after 24h
−5%/day after MC
BTC price after 48h
🔮 Outcome Scenarios
📈 BEST CASE
Upside Case — Cycle Resumes
Ceiling target$120,584
Your BTC value at target$40,637
Net gain after repaying loan+$19,743
MVRV upside model$136,631
Estimated return on hold+94%
Loan interest (low APR)~$84
Loan interest (5% APR)
ATH this cycle$124,728 (Oct '25)
📉 WORST CASE
Downside Case — Floor Breaks
Floor consensus model$61,076
MVRV downside model$10,700
Margin call triggers at$38,930 (−37%)
Full liquidation at$27,260 (−56%)
Worst historical drawdown−90.7% (C1)
C4 max drawdown so far−57.3%
What happens to youLose BTC, keep loan
💹 Profit Calculator · Deploy & Target
Borrowed Capital Deployment
Deploy into BTC % of loan
Target BTC Price USD/BTC
🪙
New BTC Purchased
— deployed at current price
📦
Total BTC Held at Target
Collateral + new buy
💼
Total Assets at Target
Total BTC × target price
🧾
Loan + Interest Owed
at target date
📈
Net Profit vs. Today
Total value − debt − starting collateral value
🔁
Leveraged Return
On original collateral value
🪨
Unleveraged Return
If you'd just held, no loan
Leverage Edge
Extra $ gained vs. not borrowing
⚖️
Breakeven Price (Net P&L = 0)
Below: leverage costs you · Above: leverage adds gains
New BTC = (Loan × Deploy%) ÷ Current BTC Price  ·  Total Assets = (Collateral + New) BTC × Target Price + Undeployed Cash  ·  Net P&L = Total Assets − Loan Principal − Original Collateral Value  ·  Interest accrues separately (see Loan Math above) and is not deducted here.
🎯 Deployed vs Undeployed · Breakeven Price
Deployed Undeployed
Net P/L at exit price Above breakeven Below breakeven
The bar shows how your loan splits between BTC bought back in (Deployed) and cash held on the side (Undeployed), driven by the Deploy % slider above. The chart sweeps the same Net P&L formula across a range of exit prices — the solid vertical line marks your Breakeven Price, the dashed line marks your current Target Price. Left of breakeven the deploy strategy loses money versus today; right of it, it gains.
📡 On-Chain Signals
MVRV Ratio
1.167
Undervalued
Z-Score
−1.426
Accumulate
MA Stack
Bearish
Watch
ROC 90d
−2.2%
Bottoming
Cycle Position
54.1%
Mid-Cycle
vs Cycle Peak
43%
Deep Dip
LTV / Risk
40% / Med
Buffer: 37% drop
Moderate
Price vs ATH
−51.1%
Drawdown
Cycle 4 Context (2024–2027)
Cycle Start (Apr 2024) TODAY — 54.1% elapsed Est. End 2027
In prior cycles: MVRV troughed mid-cycle, then recovered strongly.
C4 MVRV Peak
2.733
Nov 2024 · $99,013
C4 Price ATH
$124,728
Oct 2025
Ceiling Consensus
$120,584
Range: $99k – $340k
📍 Liquidation Levels · Your Position
📊 Everything at BTC Price · Scenario Table
BTC Price Δ Now LTV Status Equity Net P/L Return P/L vs Cost Basis
Rows update live with your inputs above. Equity = BTC value − loan principal. Net P/L / Return use your Profit Calculator deploy % and target settings, valued against your collateral's current price (loan interest not deducted). P/L vs Cost Basis instead measures against what you actually paid (your Cost Basis entry above) — set it to see this column. Because leverage blends in BTC bought at today's price, this column's breakeven is usually different from your raw entry price — see the blended breakeven above. Anchor rows mark Liquidation, Margin Call, MVRV Floor, Ceiling Target and Cycle ATH.
📈 Equity & Net P/L vs BTC Price
Net P/L vs today's collateral Margin call zone Liquidation zone
Same math as the table above, swept continuously instead of in fixed steps — drag any input to see the curve and the margin call / liquidation zones move with your position. The dashed vertical line marks today's price.
⚖️ Analyst View · Pro & Con
✓ Case for borrowing now
↗️MVRV Z-score — historically a strong accumulation zone.
↗️C4 MVRV regression floor — borrowing near statistical bottom.
↗️Liquidation requires a deep drop.
↗️Loan carry is minimal relative to potential BTC upside.
↗️No taxable event. BTC exposure maintained throughout.
↗️Floor consensus model close to today's price.
✕ Risks to manage
↘️MA stack — trend not yet confirmed. Borrowing into a downtrend.
↘️C4 peak MVRV lower than prior cycles. Diminishing returns.
↘️Ceiling models have massive error rates. Median guess, not guarantee.
↘️BTC-backed → USDT out. Have a clear deployment plan.
↘️⚠️ MC notifications NOT guaranteed. Set independent price alerts.
↘️Downside model shows extreme floor — wide range if macro breaks.
📋 Quant Summary
Senior Analyst · Position Assessment